http://www.inveslogic.com/tags/backwardation Blog Articles Tagged with 'backwardation' at http://www.inveslogic.com en http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/economists-view/1103229?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation The debate over whether speculation is an important factor in oil markets continues. Here's a round up of today's debate (so far):Jim Hamilton:How big a contribution could oil speculation be making?I do believe that speculation has beenanother factor... Wed, 25 Jun 2008 13:53:00 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/economists-view/1103229?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1093393?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Macro Shares filed for two ETFs that allow for gaming real estate prices as measured by the S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10 Home Price Index.The 10 in the name refers to the ten cities in the index, which are Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Ang... Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:38:09 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1093393?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1080760?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation By Jim WiandtThere are some incredibly interesting and important issues around oil futures, as Matt Hougan points out. And with oil at around $130, conspiracy chatter has grown to a roar. There are intriguing issues around contango and backwardat... Fri, 30 May 2008 05:28:59 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1080760?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/economists-view/1080422?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Stephen P. A. Brown, Raghav Virmani, and Richard Alm of the Dallas Fed look at why oil prices are so high, and whether the high prices are likely to continue. It's a more optimistic view than many. Their bottom line is Absent supply disruptions, it ... Thu, 29 May 2008 19:23:00 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/economists-view/1080422?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1077928?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Excerpt from the Hussman Funds' Weekly Market Comment (5/27/08):Normally, the oil futures curve is in backwardation, which means that futures prices for distant deliverydates trade below the current spot price for oil. Occasionally though,longer... Tue, 27 May 2008 15:14:12 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1077928?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1077183?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Commodity pricing theory mainly focuses on the transference of a risk premia from risk-adverse hedgers to speculators. This insurance-like context was first proposed by Keynes (1930) in his theory of normal backwardation. Essentially, Keyne... Tue, 27 May 2008 04:08:06 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1077183?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1076551?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Nextweek, I plan to start lightening up on some of my energy holdings.There are both bullish and bearish arguments on future crude oilprices, but I think the bearish case may soon start to win out. Some ofthe recent price appreciation is merely a ref... Mon, 26 May 2008 05:21:47 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1076551?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/oil-drum/1072288?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation For the first time in the history of oil futures trading, oil prices are in continuous contango--that is, oil futures get progressively more expensive each year into the future. Does this mean that Peak Oil, as a meme, tipped ? Our latest oil pric... Tue, 20 May 2008 19:30:58 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/oil-drum/1072288?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/energy-bulletin/1071490?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Staff, Energy Bulletin. Financial Times: Fears over oil supply move into the mainstream ('Are the peak oilists right?')Jeffrey Brown's warning on oil producers' own rising consumption gains Wall St backingWhat the Export Land Model means for energy p... Mon, 19 May 2008 23:44:33 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/energy-bulletin/1071490?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/oil-drum/1070482?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Has Peak Oil, as a meme, tipped ? Our latest oil price poll suggests that well over 70% of the sample (N 3000 now) thinks that oil will at least stay above $114 a barrel for the next two months--and almost half think it will hit $140 a barrel in th... Mon, 19 May 2008 10:00:28 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/oil-drum/1070482?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/capital-chronicle/1068689?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Yesterday the Baltic Dry Index hit 11,067 defying, it seems, the relationship it has long had with 10 year Treasurys.Exhibit 1: BDI vs 10 Year US TreasurysIn part this may be due to bond yields being extra low for fear of the credit crisis. There are... Fri, 16 May 2008 09:56:00 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/capital-chronicle/1068689?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/capital-chronicle/1077812?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Yesterday the Baltic Dry Index hit 11,067 defying, it seems, the relationship it has long had with 10 year Treasurys.Exhibit 1: BDI vs 10 Year US TreasurysIn part this may be due to bond yields being extra low for fear of the credit crisis. There are... Fri, 16 May 2008 09:56:00 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/capital-chronicle/1077812?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/energy-outlook/1067590?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation As of yesterday's market close, the price of light sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was up 29% since December 31, 2007. In this environment, prognostications about the market become obsolete almost as fast as they're writte... Thu, 15 May 2008 11:14:00 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/energy-outlook/1067590?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/metals-place/1033052?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation China's supply of copper concentrate is sufficient, and the backwardation market condition, referring to a lower futures price in the distant delivery months than in the near delivery, can hardly change.... Fri, 11 Apr 2008 09:12:06 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/metals-place/1033052?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/capital-chronicle/1025950?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation A little over a quarter ago this update on the Baltic Dry Index was posted here. Today the graph looks like this:A very useful comment last time pointed out that it is also worth watching forward freight agreements (FFA), derivatives used by shipper... Thu, 03 Apr 2008 11:11:00 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/capital-chronicle/1025950?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1021003?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation Investing in commodities means investing in futures. And futures mean the mysteries of contango and backwardation. We cover this all the time here at HardAssetsInvestor.com, and with good reason. Rolling forward a futures contract can be a tremendous... Mon, 31 Mar 2008 02:06:01 -0400 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/1021003?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/995669?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation By Brad ZiglerThursday's commentary ( Wheat In The Teens, ) sparked questions from some readers who wondered what I meant when I referred to the current crop year slipping into backwardation.... Tue, 04 Mar 2008 09:20:06 -0500 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/995669?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/989237?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation By Brad Zigler... Tue, 26 Feb 2008 08:43:25 -0500 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/etf-investor/989237?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/resource-investor-blog/965715?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation The New York Mercantile Exchange is searching for market making candidates to run its two new crude oil futures commodities indexes to be launched in February. The new indexes - Crude Oil MACI Index and the Backwardation-Contango Index - are th... Tue, 15 Jan 2008 06:40:00 -0500 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/resource-investor-blog/965715?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/energy-outlook/948361?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation What a difference a few weeks makes. A month ago, I was contacted by a TV news producer who was lining up talking heads for the day when oil broke $100/barrel--then expected at any moment. Subsequently, instead of breaching that level, the most-wat... Thu, 06 Dec 2007 11:15:00 -0500 http://www.inveslogic.com/sectors/directory/energy-outlook/948361?rsstype=tag&tag=backwardation