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Pay Attention to Oil Decline Rates
Posted on June 26, 2008
We commonly hear that the reason oil prices have risen is rapid demand growth in developing countries, particularly China and India. But the decline of mature oil fields throughout the world is a much greater source of demand for new oil supplies than the growth of end user demand. It has been estimated by CERA that declining fields lose 4.5% of total oil production per year thus requiring about 3.9 mb/d of new oil each year for the global oil supply to stay the same. The growth in end user demand, on the other hand, varies from only the currently estimated 800 kb/d this year to about 1....
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