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China: No, But This Time Really Is Different

Posted on May 16, 2008

Todayis relatively quiet on the China-financial-news front (the SSEComposite was down 36 bps, but not much else happened), so rather thandiscuss the most recent numbers and events and their possibleimplications for financial policy, I want to write about something atad more theoretical. For the past two months there has been a big buzz about a paper (.pdf) byCarmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (which I will refer to as R/R)called This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries ofFinancial Crises. As the title implies, theauthors examine the historical evidence of financial c...

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china , volatility