by Mark Thoma, University of Oregon (Department of Economics)

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Fed Watch: Time to Think About The Other Side?

Posted on April 20, 2008

Tim Duy looks for signs that the bottom of the cycle is approaching:Time to Think About The Other Side?, by Tim Duy: It is easy to fall into the world is ending trap. But economic downturns do not last forever, and the current episode is no exception. Ever since last summer, the yield curve, particularly the 10-2 steepness, has been sending a signal that I find difficult to ignore a signal that the technical recession will be rather shallow and short-lived. Indeed, the 10-2 spread currently is consistent with the end rather than the beginning of a downturn:Yield Spread: 10 Year an...

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