Macro perspectives on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology and Digital Media

Visit Big Picture

InTrade's Strange & Misnamed Recession Bet

Posted on August 05, 2008

US Recession 2008 Chart via Intrade I am only a partial believer in The Wisdom of Crowds. Why? Most of the time, the crowd is correct. However, at turning points, or in manias, the crowd can be totally and expensively wrong. That's why I always watch the trend, and what the crowd is doing, and whether we are in one of those rare moments when the profitable thing to do is fade popular opinion. Hence, it caught my attention in the Spring when the Intrade Recession forecast for 2008 suddenly went into freefall. The Economist community dropped the odds of recession dramatically over the same Mar...

Original article link


data , gdp , spot price