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Continuing Unemployment Insurance Claims Say Recession

Posted on May 22, 2008

Below 400k New Claims = No Recession. One of the latest wrong ideas floating around is that you cannot possibly have a recession until there are more than 400k new jobless claims per week. I do not believe that relying on New Unemployment Claims presents sufficient information to draw that conclusion. This morning, we will explore why, and what might be a better measure. (New Jobless Claims are released today at 8:30 am. Consensus is for 370K, with a range of 360K to 380).Similar to the erroneous claim that no recession can start when GDP is positive -- now thoroughly debunked --the latest ...

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data , gdp